Tony Kim Aug 15, 2025 01:36
Stellar (XLM) trades at $0.43 after a sharp pullback, but bullish fundamentals including the upcoming Protocol 23 upgrade and record TVL keep long-term outlook positive.
Quick Take
• XLM currently trading at $0.43 (-8.38% in 24h)
• Stellar’s RSI at 52.28 suggests neutral momentum despite recent decline
• Protocol 23 upgrade scheduled for September 3 driving institutional interest
• Record-high TVL of $152.11 million demonstrates growing DeFi adoption
What’s Driving Stellar Price Today?
The XLM price experienced a notable correction today, dropping 8.38% from yesterday’s highs near $0.47. However, this pullback comes after a remarkable 12.3% surge earlier this week that positioned Stellar as a market leader in the CoinDesk 20 Index.
The primary catalyst behind Stellar’s recent strength stems from the August 8 announcement of Protocol 23, a major network upgrade scheduled for a mainnet vote on September 3, 2025. This upgrade introduces smart contracts and enhanced tokenization capabilities, potentially positioning Stellar to compete more directly with Ethereum and other smart contract platforms.
Adding to the positive sentiment, Ripple’s $125 million settlement with the SEC has created a regulatory tailwind for cross-border payment tokens like XLM. The resolution removes uncertainty that has long plagued similar projects, with traders viewing this as validation for the entire sector.
Perhaps most significantly, Stellar’s Total Value Locked reached an all-time high of $152.11 million, demonstrating genuine adoption of the network’s DeFi capabilities beyond speculative trading.
XLM Technical Analysis: Mixed Signals Amid Consolidation
Stellar technical analysis reveals a complex picture following the recent volatility. The XLM RSI sits at 52.28, indicating neutral momentum and suggesting the token isn’t oversold despite today’s decline. This positioning often precedes further directional moves in either direction.
Stellar’s MACD shows bearish divergence with a histogram reading of -0.0020, indicating short-term selling pressure. However, the overall MACD remains positive at 0.0123, suggesting the longer-term bullish trend remains intact.
The moving average structure tells a compelling story for Stellar. XLM trades above its 20-day SMA ($0.42), 50-day SMA ($0.38), and significantly above the 200-day SMA ($0.31), confirming the “Very Strong Bullish” classification. The 7-day SMA at $0.44 provides immediate resistance, while the 12-period EMA at $0.43 aligns closely with current price action.
Stellar Price Levels: Key Support and Resistance
Based on Binance spot market data, several critical XLM price levels emerge for traders. The immediate resistance sits at $0.47, which corresponds to both the 24-hour high and the upper Bollinger Band. A decisive break above this level could target the stronger resistance at $0.52, representing the next major technical barrier.
On the downside, Stellar support levels appear well-defined. The immediate support at $0.36 aligns with previous consolidation zones, while the stronger support at $0.22 represents the 52-week low and a critical level for long-term holders.
The XLM resistance at $0.47 has proven significant, with multiple tests failing to break higher. However, the proximity to the middle Bollinger Band at $0.42 suggests the current trading range between $0.36-$0.47 may persist until the Protocol 23 upgrade provides a fundamental catalyst.
Should You Buy XLM Now? Risk-Reward Analysis
The current XLM price presents different opportunities depending on trading timeframe and risk tolerance. Short-term traders should monitor the $0.44 pivot point closely, as a break below could signal further downside toward the $0.36 support level.
For swing traders, the risk-reward appears favorable with a stop-loss below $0.36 and targets at $0.47-$0.52. The upcoming Protocol 23 upgrade provides a clear fundamental catalyst that could drive the next leg higher, especially if the broader crypto market remains supportive.
Long-term investors may find the current levels attractive, particularly given Stellar’s TVL reaching record highs and the regulatory clarity following Ripple’s SEC settlement. The 200-day moving average at $0.31 provides strong technical support for any major market downturn.
However, traders should remain cautious of the bearish MACD histogram and the broader market context. The 24-hour trading volume of $85.3 million on Binance spot suggests healthy liquidity but may not be sufficient to absorb large sell orders if sentiment deteriorates.
Conclusion
Despite today’s 8.38% decline, the XLM price outlook remains constructive heading into the crucial September 3 Protocol 23 upgrade. The combination of record TVL, regulatory clarity, and strong technical positioning above key moving averages suggests any weakness may prove temporary. Traders should watch the $0.44 pivot level closely over the next 24-48 hours, with a break below potentially triggering further downside toward $0.36, while a recovery above $0.47 could reignite the bullish momentum toward $0.52.
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